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Expected Starting Line-ups:
Spain (4-2-1-3):

Iker Casillas;
Sergio Ramos, Gerard Pique, Carles Puyol, Joan Vapdevila;
Sergio Busquets, Xabi Alonso;
Xavi;
Pedro, David Villa, Andres Iniesta.

Netherlands (4-2-3-1):

Maarten Stekelenburg;
Gregory van der Wiel, Johnny Heitinga, Joris Mathijsen, Giovanni van
Bronckhorst;
Nigel de Jong, Mark van Bommel;
Arjen Robben, Wesley Sneijder, Dirk Kuuyt;
Robin van Persie.
Referee: Howard Webb (England).

Venue: Soccer City Stadium, Johannesburg.

Just like that, the first ever World Cup to be held in Africa is
coming to an end with Sunday’s final between the reigning European
champions Spain and two-times finalists Holland as the crowning glory
of what has been an eventful, unpredictable – albeit mostly
unspectacular – month of groundbreaking impact. The contrast in style, the
individual talent, and the collective class the two teams boast in
their ranks should make for a fitting and fascinating climax.

Holland look at this showpiece final with a sense of entitlement. The
nation has reached two World Cup finals, provided the collective
memory of football fans with some of the most exquisite and sublime
football, and changed the countenance of the game forever by creating
what is commonly known as the ‘total football’ built around
fluid interplay, constant interchange in the attacking positions,
relentless movement, and the notion that the best way to defend is to
hold onto the ball and pierce an opponent with slick, sharp
passing. Yet their contribution to football, which has won them
endless accolades and earned them a status of sentimental favourites,
has never been rewarded with a World Cup trophy.

The team molded by Bert van Marwijk’s’s conservative and pragmatic
approach is a far cry from the model of the 70s that captured the
hearts of football fans all over the world, but they are on the brink
of outdoing their forebears.

Holland won every single competitive match they have played since
their 3-1 loss to Russia in the Euro 2008 quarter-finals, a stunning
run that includes winning all 10 of their qualifying matches as well
as their six World Cup contests. They were largely unimpressive but
their team ethics, few moments of individual brilliance, and more than
one stroke of luck (a bizarre own goal against Denmark, a goalkeeping
blunder from the Japan keeper, an uncharacteristic mistake by the
Brazilian keeper and a huge deflection that let them back into the
match against Brazil, and their second goal against Uruguay which was
allowed despite a hint of offside) helped guide them to their first
World Cup final in 32 years. The third goal against Uruguay, however,
that all but handed them the ticket to the final, was a brief
illustration of the attacking potential that Holland have. It was
brilliantly a worked attacking move that was capped off with a perfect
finish from Arjen Robben. Needless to say, they will have to come
up with many similar moves if they are to overcome Spain.

Much like Holland, the Spaniards have always felt that history owes
them a heavy debt and it’s payback time. Before this tournament, they
had never advanced beyond the quarter-finals despite consistently
producing a vast array of talent over the years.

What separates this generation from its unsuccessful predecessors
is a newfound toughness, a winning mentality, and a solid defence, all
of which were desperately lacking in previous Spanish teams. Ironically, it’s  Spain – and not Holland – that reaped the fruits of the Total Football model and hold more resemblance to the Dutch’s glorious 70s teams. When he took over as Barcelona coach in the early 1990s, the legendary Johan Cruyff re-shaped Barcelona, enshrining in them the values of total football and creating the perfect combination of style and substance. Even when Cruyff left the club, they remained loyal to his style and legacy which became the trademark of the club and the Barça academy. The current Barcelona generation, who constitute the core of the Spanish team, have inherited Cruyff´s philosophy and you could say it runs in their DNA.

Spain’s road to the final was anything but smooth. Until the
semi-final match against Germany, they couldn’t replicate their Euro
2008 form or even get close to it. They only managed 1-0 wins in all
of their three knock-out games with all three wins having a similar
feel about them: Spain struggled to break their opponents down in the
first half or create any clear-cut chances. They stepped up in the
latter part of the second half either thanks to a substitution or to
an internal swap of positions, and then they scored the decisive winner.
Although their wins were hard-fought and fortunate at times, you never
had the feeling that they were pushed to the limit. Their lack of
goals can be partly attributed to the poor form of rusty striker
Fernando Torres with David Villa forced to shoulder the burden of
scoring goals, to the fact that their opponents defend very tight and
deep, and to Spain’s insistence to score the perfect goal and
basically walk the ball into the net.

Spain are almost unbeatable when they score first, having won the
last 41 matches in which they’ve scored first. This means that Holland
cannot afford to trail the Spaniards because Vicente del Bosque’s
has a team whose ability to keep possession makes it very difficult for their
opponents to score once they’ve taken the lead. On the other hand, Spain’s only two losses in the last three years have occurred when they conceded first: against the USA in the Confederations Cup last year and in the group stages against Switzerland. If Holland, therefore, can take the lead on Sunday, I fancy their chances of hoisting the greatest trophy of all.

Tactical Analysis

I expect Holland to start with a 4-2-3-1 formation that could change
into a 4-3-3 formation when they have the ball. They welcome back
holding midfielder De Jong who served a one-match suspension to miss
the Uruguay game. Holland don’t have the best centre backs around but
their two excellent, aggressive, and experienced holding midfielders,
Van Bommel and De Jong, should provide the cover as they’ve been doing
throughout the tournament. It will be fascinating to see how these
two cope with Spain’s midfield, particularly Xavi. The 30-year-old
playmaker is the heart of both club and country and his peerless
passing and vision have been fundamental to Spain’s success. In order
to cut the main line of supply to Villa, you have to limit Xavi’s
influence and Van Bommel, a former teammate of Xavi at Barcelona, will
have to be at his very best to stand any chance of doing this.

Xavi’s opposite number at the Oranje is Sneijder, who has been
marvellous this season, leading his club Inter Milan to win the
Italian league, the Italian Cup and the Champions League. He carried
his form with his club into the national team, scoring five goals and
being involved in most of their good attacking moves. The task of
stopping Sneijder will be mainly handed to Sergio Busquets. The
21-year-old Barcelona midfielder has been a revelation in this
tournament. He is the sort of player whose name isn’t mentioned a lot, but he does all the dirty work,

getting the ball back, tackling, and covering the back four. Barcelona coach Pep Guardiola said last year

that the Catalan youngster is on his way to become the best holding midfielder in the world and Del Bosque

preferred him over the much more glamorous Cesc Fabergas, which says a lot about Busquets’ significance.

He and Xabi Alonso will be vital in the attempt to prevent Sneijder from getting the ball in dangerous positions;

the two Spaniards should keep an eye on the brilliant number 10 ánd not allow him freedom to shoot from distance.

I expect the match to hinge on these two midfield battles; the team that emerges victorious in them should win the match.

It’s not only about the midfield, though. The wide lads on both sides
will be crucial. Arjen Robben and Andres Iniesta, two of the most
gifted players in the world, are both capable of determining the
outcome of the match with one moment of magic. Robben is likely to
operate on the right flank and cut in to finish with his devastating
left foot. Capdevila, while a very solid left-back, cannot live with
Robben’s pace and technique. He will need the centre backs to help
him while also requiring Pedro, whom I expect to start in place of Torres, to track back.

Iniesta is slightly less explosive than Robben but he is a more
versatile player. He has been deployed on the wings by Del Bosque but
he is naturally an attacking midfielder. Even if he is to be
man-marked by his former teammate Giovanni van Bronckhorst, he can drop back
to midfield or swap wings with Pedro, but his life will not be easy
with work horse Dirk Kuyt expected to help the defenders in stopping the
diminutive 26-year-old.

When it comes to centre forwards, Spain hold the clear advantage:
While Villa has been superb in this World Cup, scoring five of Spain’s
seven goals and setting up another, Robin van Persie has been
anonymous all tournament. In his defence, though, he has been isolated
most of the time, and he has failed to adapt to the role of the
solitary striker assigned to him at Holland. But he is so talented
that you simply cannot write him off.

Paul the Octopus, one of the biggest stars of this World Cup,
predicted Spain to win and this is not the only superstitious record
that points to Spain. When Rafa Nadal, the Spanish tennis
star who is expected to attend the final in Johannesburg, won
Wimbledon in 2008, Spain won the European Championships in the very
same summer.  In the following year, Nadal missed Wimbledon with knee
injury and Spain lost in the Confederation Cup semi-final.  This year
Nadal won Wimbledon ….
However, never have a team who lost their opening World Cup match
managed to win the World Cup. Spain lost their first Group H game
against Switzerland and will be hoping to end this pattern.
If the Netherlands win on Sunday, they will become the only team to
win all of their qualifying and World Cup games since the great
Brazil of 1970.

These nuggets aside, it’s up to the players on the pitch to decide
matters. Either way, we will have first-time winners which is
refreshing in itself. This is a very tricky match to predict but I will go with Holland,

because the way they reached the final makes you feel they are
destined to win the whole thing. In addition, history has such a funny
way of evening itself out on the long run, and after two
heartbreaking losses in the final, it might finally be third time
lucky for the Oranje.

Budour Hassan
DFN Sports Staff Writer